Following a downward trend that significantly eased variable-rate mortgage payments in Portugal, market expectations for the second half of 2026 point to a stabilisation or slight increase in Euribor, in response to signals from the European Central Bank regarding monetary policy.
ECB Context
The European Central Bank (BCE) has signalled caution in continuing rate cuts, given eurozone inflation that, although controlled, remains above the 2% target in several member countries. Financial markets anticipate that the ECB's deposit rate will remain stable or undergo minimal adjustments until the end of 2026.
Impact on Mortgage Payments
For those with mortgages indexed to 6- or 12-month Euribor, stabilisation means that the pressure of sharp increases is unlikely in the short term. However, those considering fixing their mortgage rate should do so now, while fixed rates offered by banks still reflect a moderate interest rate environment.
For New Buyers
The current environment remains favourable compared to the 2023 peak, but uncertainty about the future trajectory reinforces the importance of a solid financial analysis before taking on long-term debt.